In a recent Thought Leader Lecture at Stellenbosch University, presented by Yellowwoods CEO Adrian Enthoven the progress that SA has made in the last few years was assessed. The lecture comprised +/- 6500 words. I will try and summarise it into 1200 words – Steuart Pennington
After-10-years-of-decline-has-south-africa-turned-the-corner?
Says Enthoven, “This is an enormously important question — one with far-reaching implications for our future — and it is one that I have spent a lot of time thinking about. It has been the central, sustained preoccupation of the Business for South Africa partnership with government, an initiative that approximately 20 business leaders, including myself, have been driving for the past two and a half years.
But before I start “I believe a positive disposition is a necessary mindset to contribute to shaping a better future for our country. It is not that the pessimists and detractors are wrong, but pessimism is the bedfellow of fatalism, defeatism and passivity. The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman captured this when he said, “Pessimists are usually right and optimists are usually wrong, but all the great changes have been accomplished by optimists.”
Discovery’s Adrian Gore has spoken frequently about how South Africans are particularly prone to a “declinism bias”. The term was coined by the German historian Oswald Spengler in his book The Decline of the West. In the “declinism” cognitive bias, individuals view the past more favourably than the future, and believe that society, culture or civilisation is in decline.”
“In the summary below I urge you to focus on progress and future potential” Ed.
From a Decade of Decline to a Moment of Renewal
Between 1994 and 2014, South Africa enjoyed its longest period of post-apartheid prosperity. Growth averaged 3%, inflation stabilised, debt fell to 24% of GDP, and millions joined the middle class. However, the following decade saw a steep decline. State capture, mismanagement, and corruption crippled key state-owned enterprises like Eskom and Transnet. Infrastructure eroded, unemployment surged, and growth fell below 1%. Investor confidence collapsed as the country became synonymous with power cuts, policy paralysis, and fiscal distress.
By 2023, South Africa appeared stuck in decline. Yet beneath the surface, a quiet but profound structural reform movement had begun — driven not only by government policy but by a new partnership with business.
The Rise of Collaborative Reform
The reform process began with Tito Mboweni’s 2019 policy paper, outlining market-based reforms in the “network industries” — energy, logistics, and telecommunications. This vision evolved into the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan (ERRP) and the creation of Operation Vulindlela, a joint initiative of the Presidency and National Treasury to accelerate reforms and clear bureaucratic blockages.
The real inflection point came when business mobilised in scale. Through Business for South Africa (B4SA), over 160 CEOs representing R11-trillion in market capitalisation committed to active reform partnership. For the first time, the private sector became a delivery partner — not a critic — working directly with government teams on four priority areas: energy, logistics, crime and corruption, and youth employment. This alignment of public and private effort, Enthoven argues, is the engine now turning the reform flywheel.
Energy: The Catalyst of Confidence
The energy sector demonstrates the most visible turnaround. In 2023, South Africans endured over 200 days of Stage 4–6 load shedding. By late 2024, load shedding had effectively ceased. Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor rose from 51% to over 70%, thanks to improved management, focused maintenance, and decisive action against sabotage and criminal syndicates.
The Electricity Regulation Amendment Act (2024) transformed the power landscape by unbundling Eskom, opening grid access, and creating a competitive electricity market. The removal of licensing restrictions unleashed a flood of private investment: a pipeline of 220 GW in renewable and storage projects — triple the country’s total demand. With R400-billion already invested and R2-trillion projected over the next decade, South Africa’s energy transition is unlocking reliable, affordable power and creating a globally competitive energy market.
Rebuilding the Infrastructure Backbone
Reform momentum extends to logistics and transport, where dysfunction had long strangled trade. At ports, turnaround times have improved dramatically — from 21 days to just two. Supported by B4SA and the National Logistics Crisis Committee, Transnet’s leadership has introduced performance metrics and new private concessions. Freight rail volumes, once in freefall, have rebounded from 149 million tonnes in 2023 to 171 million tonnes in 2025, and new legislation now allows private operators to run on Transnet’s network.
In water management, years of stagnation are ending. The government has cleared an eight-year licensing backlog and implemented a 90-day approval target. The Water Partnership Office now enables structured public-private investment, with the potential to mobilise R900-billion by 2030.
Meanwhile, telecommunications and immigration reforms are enhancing competitiveness. The 2022 spectrum auction expanded 4G and 5G access, driving down data costs, while the points-based visa system and Trusted Employer Scheme streamline entry for skilled workers and investors.
Fiscal and Market Confidence Restored
This reform drive is beginning to show up in the macroeconomic data — the most compelling evidence of restored confidence. South Africa has recorded two consecutive primary budget surpluses, the first in 15 years. Debt is stabilizing below 80% of GDP, inflation has fallen from 7.8% to 3.4%, and the JSE Top 40 has surged 58% in USD terms since mid-2024. Capital is returning: R129-billion in new bond inflows has entered the market, and institutions like Bank of America anticipate sovereign credit upgrades within four years. If reform continues, the Bureau for Economic Research projects growth of 3.5% annually by 2029.
Remaining Risks and the Need for Political Stability
Enthoven cautions that the progress remains fragile. Organised crime continues to undermine logistics and infrastructure, many municipalities remain financially unstable, and the Public Service Amendment Bill — key to professionalizing the civil service — has yet to be enacted. Above all, the Government of National Unity must maintain cohesion and resist populism to safeguard reform gains. Stability, he insists, is the essential precondition for investment confidence.
A Strategic Optimism
For South African business, this is not a time for complacency but for engagement. The progress achieved — from ending load shedding to stabilising finances — proves that reform through partnership works. Enthoven calls for a strategic optimism grounded in evidence: optimism not as wishful thinking, but as a deliberate act of confidence that fuels further investment and growth.
Conclusion
To conclude, after a decade of decline, South Africa has turned the corner. Our economic trajectory is once again positive and improving. The structural reforms, which have not received the attention and recognition they deserve, are fundamentally transforming our economy and have unleashed an unprecedented wave of investment into the network industries. If sustained, they will be the impetus to start spinning our economic flywheel, unleashing a virtuous cycle of confidence and investment and accelerating economic activity that will drive prosperity for decades to come.
We have collectively achieved what was considered impossible — reversing years of economic decline. But the path ahead requires persistence, purpose, and every hand on deck. It brings to mind the call of President Jan Brand, well known and much admired by my Free State family: “Alles sal reg kom as elkeen sy plig doen [Everything will come right if everyone does their duty].” Our task now is to focus with unwavering resolve, to safeguard these hard-won gains, and to complete the structural reforms necessary to build the foundation for durable prosperity for all South Africans.
As my Afrikaans master used to say “Kerels, be careful of change, it can happen behind your back right in front of your eyes!”
The post What’s happening? Are we really turning the corner toward confidence and growth? appeared first on The Home Of Great South African News.
Alles sal reg kom as elkeen sy plig doen
The post What’s happening? Are we really turning the corner toward confidence and growth? appeared first on The Home Of Great South African News. Read More
