By Steuart Pennington
Journalists will tell you the good news is often difficult to find because it is usually in the form of a trend which requires research and investigation. Bad news is easy to find because it is most often a dramatic event, in your face, downloadable and requires little investigation. Listen to SAfm, watch Carte Blanche and read the Sunday Times as living proof of this
There are 5 trends that I have researched and investigated this year, some good, some better, and some bad. I summarise them in bullet form below with a link to the article:
- Poverty, Unemployment and Inequality – Good story. Over the past 20 years SA has made considerable progress in the reduction of this worrying troika. I wrote to the Minister of Social Development, Ms Tolashe, and explained:
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- Government transfers have substantially reduced abject poverty, but not significantly moderate or relative poverty
- Formal housing numbers have increased
- Home ownership has grown
- Income and wealth inequality has declined, the SA GINI co-efficient is outdated and inaccurate
- Real unemployment, citizens who don’t have any work is at +/- 15% not 32.9% as StatsSA reports, the difference being ‘official’ vs ‘unofficial’ numbers. See link below:
Open Letter to Ms Sisisi Tolashe – Minister of Social Development
Readers may not agree with the budget, the sustainability and the wisdom of our Social Grant/ Government transfers system (another debate), but the facts are that abject poverty has been substantially reduced. The World Bank figures take no account of the ‘value’ of such transfers and therefore can be questioned in terms of their veracity.
- The NHI and Health Care in SA – Bad story: Over the past 20 years the state of our health care has declined dramatically. The NHI will not change this, only worsen it. I wrote to the Minister of Health, Mr Motsoaledi, and explained:
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- 45% of our 3479 clinics are either dysfunctional or under-resourced
- 60% of our 394 hospitals are either dysfunctional or under-resourced
- We have 18 Open Medical Aid schemes in SA (can be joined by anybody) and 58 Restricted (for specific employer groups) with a total of 9 699 000 members, 16% of the population comprising (2022 figures)
- 5 100 000 Black members,
- 486 000 Coloured members,
- 744 000 Indian/Asian members
- 3 369 000 White members.
- We have 200 ‘Private’ hospitals in SA owned by Netcare, Medi-Clinic and Life Healthcare which service these medical schemes.
The grand plan of NHI is to close down ‘private’ medical aid schemes and private hospitals. See link below:
Open Letter to Minister of Health: Dr. Aaron MotsoalediÂ
My view is that the NHI is another government example of outdated socialist logic, the reader need look no further that the debacle that has unfolded with the UK and NHS. The issue is not as much about cost as it is about private initiative, service, professionalism, quality and yes, competition – all of which has gone backwards with NHS – let alone the feeding trough opportunity in SA. Just imagine if the same was tried with education.
- Sport and Olympic prowess – Bad story:  Of 205 participating nations – 89 won medals. SA ranked 42nd overall, in the top 50% of medal winners, and in the top 25% of participating countries. Good story? – No. I wrote to the Minister of Sports and Culture, Mr Gayton Mckenzie, and explained:
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- In medals per capita we rank 71st out of the 89 countries, in the bottom 20%
- Government spending on sport is incoherent and often unsupportive of some sporting disciplines
- 9735 out of a total of 22587 public schools have no sporting facilities at all = 43%
- Only approx 7250 schools offer 4 or more sporting disciplines
- Our school-going population is 12 684 886 learners, that means statistically 5 454 500 children in our schools have no access to sporting facilities at all!
- We have little in the way of talent scouting, sporting academies and high performance centres
open-letter-to-minister-of-sports-arts-culture-mr-gayton-mckenzie
Rassie’s innovations in rugby with finding talent, giving them opportunity, finding coaches and giving them opportunity shows that in just 13 years a sport can be completely transformed to what he calls ‘the new normal’ – merit alone. Minister Gayton must get close to this example.
- Business and Politics – Better story: The cocktail of the GNU, adding a Business Pledge mixer, Informal sector fruit and a Civil Society straw is beginning to taste better. John Endres, CEO of the Institute of Race Relations inspired my article.
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- Leg 1: The Changing role of the State; Coalition governments, local, provincial and national and the GNU – better prospects for investment
- Leg 2: Private sector initiative through B4SA, working with government – considerable re-building
- Leg 3: Civil society oversight and contribution through 250 000 registered NGO’s – assisting where government is failing.
- Leg 4: A vigorous informal sector contributing R1 trillion to GDP and engaging 8 million citizens – reducing real unemployment
sas-future-is-the-table-sturdier-than-before
This represents the way forward, not a jumble of scenarios, we are on the road to an improved future.
- International and Local Investment – Better story. I have used JP Landman’s extensive piece of investigative reporting here.
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- In 2023 total investment in the country amounted to just over R1 trillion. Total GDP was just over R7 trillion, which means investment came to 15% of GDP.
- It is below the 25% National Development Plan’s ambition but still an enormous number. It comes to R114 million per hour, every hour of each of the 365 days of the year!
- Traditionally, fixed investment in South Africa comprised about two-thirds from the private sector and one-third from the public sector. In recent years, the public sector share has declined, and the private sector share has increased. By 2023, the numbers came to 71% and 29%, respectively. The private sector is becoming ever more important.
- A total of R943.8 billion is budgeted for public-sector infrastructure spending over the 3 years from 2024 to 2027.
- The trick in making SA 1 big construction site requires that investment in both the public and private sectors must increase from 4% to 10% of GDP to 10% and 15%, respectively.
- Since 2018, the political climate on public-private partnerships and using private capital in the public space has changed significantly. There is a greater willingness to blend public and private money for infrastructure.
- More stringent project requirements and the use of more private capital will simultaneously improve the quality of spend and increase the pot of money.
- As for the private sector, all confidence metrics have improved since the formation of the Government of National Unity; and confidence is the foundation of private sector investment.
- Of course, all this may become unstuck due to global events (eg Ukraine, Middle East, Trump) but that is beyond our control. Let’s focus on what we can control.
investment-pulling-it-all-together-2
Conclusion
These 5 trends are worth watching, they will, to an extent inform our future. Personally though, I will be watching what our new Minister of Basic Education Ms Siviwe Gwarube does to reform education in this country, provided she survives the BELA challenge. Real freedom and the opportunity to realize the potential of a country’s human capital are founded upon equal access – to quality education. Without that the troika of poverty, inequality and unemployment will persist no matter the extent of government transfers.
ENJOY YOUR FESTIVE BREAK, THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT, AND THANKS FOR READING
(We will be closed 16th Dec – 10th Jan)
The post Christmas Reading 😊 5 Important ‘Based’ trends for SA in 2025 appeared first on The Home Of Great South African News.
Journalists will tell you the good news is often difficult to find because it is usually in the form of a trend which requires research and investigation.
The post Christmas Reading 😊 5 Important ‘Based’ trends for SA in 2025 appeared first on The Home Of Great South African News. Read More
