The All Blacks have found a way to outmuscle the Springboks without winning the collision battle or dominating the set-piece, writes DEVIN HERMANUS.
On Saturday, Dave Rennie’s men won 33-16 at Ellis Park to go 1-0 up in the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series. They zoned in on the world champions’ inefficiency, exploited it relentlessly and let the scoreboard take care of itself.
Yes, the scrum battle was tight and the Boks actually shaded territory 59% to 41%, and were level on possession. By most traditional measures, the South Africans had the better of long stretches, yet they still lost.
RECAP: Five-try All Blacks punish Boks
New Zealand’s five tries in the match came from opportunistic moments like lock Fabian Holland’s 48th minute charge-down-and-score, rather than sustained pressure through it.
Rennie’s own numbers back it up: 3.7 points scored per entry into the Bok 22, against the hosts’ 0.9. The Kiwis opted not to grind forward metre by metre, instead punishing exactly the kind of position the Boks are used to controlling.
Rassie Erasmus conceded the All Blacks’ tackle technique of stripping the ball rather than the smothering, high-volume tackling the Boks had prepared for, caught his side off guard and drove the error count.
That’s a strategic issue and tactical problems don’t fix themselves between now and next Saturday’s clash at Cape Town Stadium without a genuine rethink.
ICYMI: ‘Clever’ All Blacks tactic caught Boks off-guard
The Kiwis also won turnovers 14 to five and completed 87% of their tackles to South Africa’s 77%. Both stats sit outside the physical contest the Boks are built to win. New Zealand are about speed and technique, not size and set-piece nous.
This isn’t new territory for Rennie, who took the Chiefs from last in the New Zealand conference to a Super Rugby title in his first year in charge by introducing work-rate metrics and data tracking that former prop Ben Afeaki once described as scenes from biographical sports film Moneyball.
South African rugby’s identity is built on physicality. The All Blacks just found a route around that, one that doesn’t require beating the Boks at their own game.
The defeat was compounded by indiscipline, with substitutes Marco van Staden and Cobus Reinach both shown yellow cards as the Boks struggled to contain the visitors in the final quarter.
PLUS: Proud Rennie wary of Bok response
Skipper Pieter-Steph du Toit called it shooting themselves in the foot, but self-inflicted errors compound faster against a team with a plan to efficiently exploit them.
If New Zealand can edge the small technical battles, then next week isn’t just about tightening up discipline.
Erasmus insists Saturday’s result isn’t catastrophic and that this Bok group has clawed back from worse. But recovery this time means three wins on the trot, starting in the Mother City, against an outfit that’s just shown it can bring a knife to a gunfight.
It’s Moneyball with a haka – and Rassie should be worried.
OPINION: Boks must find answers – and fast
Photo: Floris van Schouwenburg/Gallo Images
The post ‘Moneyball’ with a haka will worry Rassie appeared first on SA Rugby magazine.
The All Blacks have found a way to outmuscle the Springboks without winning the collision battle or dominating the set-piece, writes Devin Hermanus.
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